Part 3: The Future of the Western Conference

This is the third of a four part series started last month that discusses the future of franchises in hockey. To re-iterate the guidelines in case you haven’t read the previous posts, this focuses specifically on players that the current teams have and looking at the contracts those players have signed. Each team is evaluated on their top 8 forwards, 4 defenseman, and 1 goalie as part of their ranking with the belief that the other players on the team should not as a whole make much of an impact on the salary cap. Teams are evaluated based on numerous criteria including length's of contract, affordability of contract, whether players are playing out of position (ex. 2nd liners playing on the first line), amount of money wasted on bought out contracts, length of time players are controlled by RFA status, etc.. Essentially the more players that a team has locked up who are affordable or exceptional, the better their ranking is. This is not necessarily a reflection of the performance of a team but on the potential for these teams to be healthy long term and have future success.

Part 3: The Western Conference (The Top Half)

1. Edmonton: The Oilers take first place in the Western Conference and it wasn’t really that close. The group of prospects, high draft picks and especially young forwards that the Oilers have developed and have control over for the next 3-5 five years is incredible. I’m not necessarily sold on all or most of these players, but the kind of potential that Gagner, Cogliano, Schremp, Nillson, Penner, Brule, O’Marra, and Pouliot have leads me to believe that at least a couple of them will develop into top line 70-90 point players. The Oilers do have a few players who have questionable contracts like Souray, Penner, and Pisani, but if they perform like they can when these contracts were signed then the deals are acceptable. The Oilers have a significant amount of their team locked up for at least 3 years and few contracts are too long, or too expensive. The big issue is goaltending where it currently doesn’t appear that the Oilers have a credible No. 1 goalie either this year or for the future. We’ll see if the development of Garon, Drouin-Deslauriers, or Dubnyk can become the long term solution that the Oilers need.

2. Chicago: When you have high draft picks and make worthwhile picks within them, you can be set for what looks like years to come, and that looks like Chicago. Add in a few well placed signings to take pressure off and mentor the young kids and you’re team looks like Chicago. Some people don’t like the signings of Brian Campbell or Cristobal Huet, but I personally think they’re great for a young up-and-coming team for like the Hawks. Chicago could have a problem if some of their young RFA’s want high-value, long term contracts but at least for the next couple of years, Chicago looks quite good. Development will be the key, and it appears Chicago is pretty good at it, especially if you look at Cam Barker who just last year looked out of place at the NHL level and now looks like a top 3 d-man for the next 15 years. Chicago’s GM, Dale Tallon will have some decisions to make this off-season with Havlat and Khabibulin as UFA’s and Barker, Versteeg, and Dave Bolland as RFA’s plus no one signed beyond 3 seasons besides Brian Campbell’s which means top forwards like Kane, Toews, and Sharp need to be signed.

3. San Jose: The major factor for San Jose being such a high ranking is flat out talent. San Jose doesn’t necessarily have a great looking future but the players they do have are playing to their potential or even exceeding it. One essential category I evaluate on is are the players you have playing in positions that their talent matches, and San Jose has lots of talented forwards and defence to fills their needs. Neither Thornton, Cheechoo, or Marleau are signed beyond two years, so San Jose has some decisions to make. San Jose does have a nice group of young forwards coming up including Setoguchi, Pavelski, Clowe, and Torrey Mitchell, with some good young prospects as well. The defence is set up even better with 4 of 6 d-men signed for 2 or more seasons. In goal, Nabokov is only signed for one more season but currently his contract is only 5.375 million, so he’ll probably be looking for a raise if San Jose is able to re-sign him. Overall, San Jose’s future is looking good, but that could change a year or two down the road if they don’t bring in new players or re-sign their current stars like Nabokov, Thornton and Marleau.

4. Los Angeles: The Kings have a group of forwards that are all signed for a good while. 7 forwards who are currently among the Kings top 10 forwards are signed for 2 or more seasons and their best forward, Anze Kopitar, is signed for the next 7 seasons. The Kings seem to be back in their youth movement after a failed attempt at signing a bunch of free agents a year ago. Consequently, young forwards like Moller, O’Sullivan, Simmonds, and Kopitar are really being given a significant amount of ice time, and are producing in response to it. Jack Johnson’s injury will really stunt his growth because this would have been a very significant year for the young d-man in both ice time and responsibility. Yet, the Kings defence looks pretty good for the next 5 to 10 years with current NHL’ers and Calder candidate Drew Doughty, the aforementioned Jack Johnson, Matt Greene, and Peter Harrold, and young 1st rounders and members of Canada's world junior team, Thomas Hickey and Colton Teubert. If they can keep this group together and even a few of them are able to reach their potential, Los Angeles will be one of the best defensive teams for years to come, with only one condition: Goaltending. Los Angeles has lived for the last few years without a goalie and that may require them to rush goaltending prospect Jonathan Bernier. In the short term Erik Ersberg seems to be surviving, but I'm not sure he is a long term solution for Los Angeles’ goaltending issues.

5. Columbus: Scott Howson was busy this past off-season and because of his moves, the Blue Jackets have a decent looking future. Columbus has a high percentage of their forwards and defenseman locked up long term, the only question is whether they have enough top end talent. Columbus looks best in goal where the tandem of Steve Mason and Pascal Leclaire are both promising young netminders who are both locked up for 2 more years each. At forward, Columbus has a few good young forwards in Brassard and Vorachek, and have picked up a few other top 6 forwards to make them pretty respectable. The health of this club has to be a concerned with players like Torres and Modin both being counted on to produce, while trying to fight off their injury woes. On defense, Columbus has a decent group of d-men but really doesn’t have top end talent. Columbus could really use a power play quarterback and puck moving defenseman to help them move to the next level.

6. Detroit: When you’re the reigning Stanley Cup champions and you get better in the off-season, is it fair to have lists like this? Well I’m not sure, but Detroit’s forwards may need some help next season unless UFA’S Franzen, Hossa, Samuelsson and Zetterberg all give the Red Wings a hometown discount. Detroit’s defence looks solid: their top 4 is one of, if not the best in the league, and even though Lidstrom isn’t signed past next season, I couldn’t imagine him signing with another team. Goaltending will be the weak point of this team until they can develop a goalie of their own or steal one from somebody else. With a strong forecasted group of UFA goalies available, maybe this will be the year that Detroit can upgrade over Chris Osgood. Now Detroit’s forwards could be hurting but then again they still have Datsyuk, Cleary, Filppula, and Holmstrom signed, so consequently compared to some teams, they don’t look that bad. Either way, if Detroit is going to continue to be the dynasty that they have been, they will need to re-sign some of their aforementioned UFA’s or find some other forwards to replace them.

7. Calgary: Oh Calgary, Darryl Sutter sometimes looks like a genius and other times like a fool. The Flames have a few top players signed to great players and a few mediocre players signed to bizarre contracts. The Flames need to either sign or replace Cammalleri, Bertuzzi, and Moss because all have contracts expiring after this season. Without them Calgary has a decent first line, and otherwise a bunch of 3rd and 4th liners. Calgary has a lot of money invested on defence, and contracts to Phaneuf, Giordano, and Regehr all look really good, but I don’t understand the money given to defensive d-men like Sarich and Vandermeer who make almost 6 million between them. In goal, if you’re a Kiprusoff fan be happy that he’s locked up for 5 more years; but if you’re a skeptic like me, you see the downturn in his play and wonder what value he’ll be with over 29 million still owed to him. Calgary has some solid top end talent but may have trouble filling out there line-up with 31 million locked up with just six players for the next three years.

8. Nashville: The Predators have a strong group of players that are locked up both for term and for reasonable contracts as a whole. The biggest question for the Predators is their goaltending. Sometimes it looks like either Dan Ellis or Pekka Rinne could be number one goalies for years to come and other times it looks like they are simply temporary stop gaps. An additional concern for the Predators is their lack of depth at forward and a good number of players playing out of position. Jason Arnott, Martin Erat, and J. P. Dumont are all good players, but look a lot better as second liners than as first liners. Match that line against other top lines in the league, and the production simply doesn’t match up for Nashville. The Predators could really use Alexander Radulov to come back to the NHL. Nashville’s defense has some of the best young d-men in the NHL but would do well to lock some more of these men up for the long term.