Tuesday, January 27, 2009

Top 10 Unrestricted Free Agents Who Should Be Available At The Trade Deadline

Yes, I know it's a long title but it encompasses the category: UFA's who should be available whether it's because their teams are non-contenders or simply unlikely to re-sign with their current team. Now start dreaming about how one of these players would fit well in your teams line-up.


1. Mathieu Schneider: The biggest catch with Schneider being moved is that Atlanta is close to the cap floor. So look for Schneider to be traded either as part of a large move or for players instead of prospects. He could really go to a variety of teams that need a puck moving defenceman.

2. Jay Bouwmeester: Any team looking to trade for Bouwmeester will be looking to sign him long term and may even look for a short window to sign him before the trade is agreed. Regardless, Bouwmeester will definitely be the most talented UFA available at the deadline. It is also still possible that Florida could re-sign him but it seems like a stretch at the moment.

3. Bill Guerin: Has not been having a phenomenal year but can still be a top 6 winger. Injuries also haven't been a concern for him in the last few years so he seems ready to go to a team on the fringe. It also shouldn't cost a lot to get rid of him.

4. Mike Comrie: Comrie has been traded at the deadline before and has proven to be able to produce quickly. The team trading for him won't necessarily need to worry about re-signing him but also won't have to give up that much to get him. Something like a late 2nd or early 3rd round pick would do, or a B grade prospect.

5. Matthias Ohlund: Mike Gillis does not wat to trade Ohlund but may decide that he is the easiest or best asset to move in order to add some scoring help. Vancouver defence is one of the best in the league and removing Ohlund from it would not dramatically hinder Vancouver's depth or its ability to produce.

6. Andy McDonald: McDonald has been injured for much of the year but is expected to be back from an ankle injury either this week or next. Andy has produced more than a point per game this season and would seem to be a solid no. 2 or maybe even no. 1 center on most teams. St. Louis is really struggling and would be wise to go into full re-build mode, consequently if McDonald is healthy, he seems destined to be playing for someone else this season.

7. Nik Antropov: One of the better forwards available, and we all know that Brian Burke is trying to clean house. This may drive his value down a bit, but either way I would expect him to go because of his ability to be a productive 2nd liner on a contender.

8. Filip Kuba: Now Ottawa needs more puck-moving defenseman rather than less, but if Bryan Murray is thinking logically, he should now he'll be able to get more from Kuba by trading him than trying to re-sign him. Should be a solid addition to a playoff team as a 3rd or 4th d-men and playing on the 2nd power play unit.

9. Nikolai Khabibulin: Whether Chicago is wanting to trade Khabibulin or Huet will be a big question but with Huet playing better it only makes sense to get rid of one of them for scoring help, prospects or even some picks. There are plenty of fringe playoff teams that could use some help in the net: see Washington

10. Jere Lehtinen: Lehtinen has been playing for the Stars for a long time and may be inclined to sign an extension with the team instead of going elsewhere, but he may be an attractive option to teams looking for both defensive and offensive help; he is also a player who has been injured for more than half the season.


Honourable Mentions

Ian Laperriere, Hall Gill, Gary Roberts, Mark Recchi


Two intentional omissions
1. Marian Gaborik: It sounds like contract talks were going no where but right now he's injured and expected to be back sometime in March (perhaps after the trade deadline). He may be traded but that's a big maybe; if so it will be done with the expectation that he is fully healthy or will be soon, and may have some conditional picks or prospects attached to it based on whether he signs or whether he is healthy enough to play for the rest of the year.

2. Daniel and Henrik Sedin: It's possible they could get moved but only if Vancouver tanks over the next month. Mike Gillis would love to sign them but seems to be having trouble deciding both on term and on the dollar amount. If the Sedins are traded it could very well be part of a blockbuster deal that wouldn't necessarily have to include a playoff team.

Tuesday, January 20, 2009

Part 4: The Future of the Western Conference

The final chapter of the four part series detailing the future of NHL franchises according to the players that they have signed.

Western Conference: (Bottom Half)

9. Phoenix: If the Coyotes don’t go bankrupt and fold, they do have a decent future, at least better than what their past has been. Pheonix has a wealth of young forwards (Mueller, Turris, Boedker, Hanzal, Tikhonov, Lisin, Porter) and, though not all are developing as the Coyotes would hope, their potential is still very high. All 7 of these forwards are 22 or under and therefore should be locked up for years through RFA status. Phoenix’s defence is definitely poorer than their forwards, Phoenix has adopted a policy of signing veteran defence every offseason, but most of these d-men are not high end talent or legitimate top 4 defenseman. Ed Jovanoski is the only quality d-men Phoenix has locked up and doesn’t have too much for prospects coming up to fill those gaps as well. Goaltending looks good as Ilya Bryzgalov is locked up for two more years, and seems to be developing into a number one goalie.

10. Minnesota: Drafting and developing top end talent is the biggest concern for Minnesota. The Wild have a lot of good looking young forwards but whether they can develop into first line players and stars in the NHL is a different question. Minnesota’s defence looks like their strongest asset with Johnsson, Schultz, and Burns a pretty solid top 3. If Kurtis Foster is able to recover for his horrific broken leg and is re-signed, then he also would add significantly to this group of d-men. Minnesota is hoping that there young forwards (Sheppard, Pouliot, Gillies) in the same way that Bouchard and Koivu have in the past few years. It appears that Gaborik will not be with this team after this year, then again with his injuries, it barely seems like he is a part of the team anyways. The Wild also have a decision to make in the off-season whether to re-sign Backstrom to a significant or to hand over the starting goaltending job to Harding. Injuries have hurt this team the most and some questionable drafting as well.

11. St. Louis: The Blues are trying hard to blend to re-build and to provide a competitive team through free agents, and I don’t think they are succeeding. They have attractive players at forward and defence but can’t seem to put together a good enough team at either end of the ice. St. Louis defence looks most promising with Johnson (injured), Pietrangelo (OHL), and current NHL’ers Jackman and Brewer making a good looking top 4 next season. At forward, it has been inconsistency and some injuries that are hurting the Blues; currently Kariya, McDonald, and Oshie have missed over 80 games between them. St. Louis’s forwards have decent talent, but may either need to develop more, become consistent, or simply play to their potential. Brad Boyes is the Blues only forward locked up for more than 2 seasons. In goal, St. Louis has Chris Mason locked up for next season but that’s it; whether Mason is a legitimate No. 1 goalie seems to be undecided.

12. Vancouver: The Canucks defence is one of the best in the league and have a nice mix of proven veterans and youngsters. Ohlund is the only top 6 d-men not locked up for next season, and Willie Mitchell is the other d-men not locked up beyond next season. In goal, a healthy Luongo is arguably the best goalie in the league but he needs to be locked up to a longer term, he’s only signed past next season. It’s Vancouver’s forwards that are the biggest question; the Canucks have only 1 player signed for two seasons and that player is Darcy Hordichuk. They only have 3 of their top 9 forwards signed for next season and their top three forwards, the Sedin’s and Sundin, aren’t signed beyond this year. Mike Gillis has done a fairly good job as a first year GM, but needs make some significant signings or trades to improve this team long term.

13. Colorado: The Avalanche are living on past glory. They have a decent number of players signed but they are expecting too much in both production and health from players like Joe Sakic, Darcy Tucker, Ryan Smyth, Tyler Arnason, Adam Foote, Scott Hannan, and Jordan Leopold. Colorado’s has signed or acquired many of these players to contracts based on their best seasons not based on their future seasons. Consequently, you get a lot of decent names playing for Colorado, while their talent drains away. Colorado has only two forwards signed beyond next season, Smyth and Stastny, both who are making more than 6 million. The Avalanche have 5 d-men signed for next season, but none signed beyond 3 seasons. Also those d-men are all making over 3 million each: Foote, Salei, Clark, Liles, and Hannan; try to convince me that they way those players are each worth 3 million or more. In goal, neither Budaj or Raycroft are signed beyond next year, though Budaj is a RFA. Then again maybe that’s a good thing because neither of those goalies are starters in NHL the way they are playing.

14. Anaheim: The Ducks have officially become old, not Chris Chelios old, but still an old team where most of their players are in their 30’s and if not signed, are UFA’s. On offence, the Ducks have some good top end talent in Getzlaf, Perry, Ryan, and Kunitz, but have only Selanne and Ryan Carter signed beyond this season. On defence, the Ducks only have control over 4 defenceman for the next season whether signed or through RFA status, and currently only Pronger and Francois Beauchemin are real top 6 defenseman. In goal, Anaheim has J.S. Giguere locked up for two more seasons, and their back-up Jonas Hiller is emerging as a solid goalie, and he’s signed for another season as well. As a whole, the players that Anaheim has signed are quite talented and are all signed for acceptable or affordable contracts; the biggest problem for Anaheim is that they simply have so few players signed to contracts.

15. Dallas: The Stars have a good number of players signed but have a lot of players either past their prime or called on to play roles that they simply aren’t talented enough to play. Dallas could almost ice a full team for next year with the players that they currently have signed but that team would probably compete for one of the worst spots in the league. Dallas has four major problems: injuries, aging players, young players not developing, and Sean Avery. Avery’s contract is almost 4 million and may have to be bought out. The Stars age includes many of their top players who simply aren’t signed beyond this season or may no longer be able to their contract value: see Zubov, Modano, Lehtinen, and Sydor. Their young players not developing describes Brunnstrom, Neal who were expected to be top 6 forwards, and Daley, Robidas, Niskanen, and Fistric were all expected to contribute more or develop into top 4 forwards. For injuries see Zubov, Morrow, Lehtinen, Lundqvist, Ott, and Brunnstrom. Dallas only real strength is in goal. Turco had a rough start but appears to be the top 5 goalie that he has been for the last few years and he is signed for two more years. The only other quality signings the Stars have is Ribeiro and Morrow both signed for 4 more years at just over 9 million between the two of them.

Wednesday, January 14, 2009

Part 3: The Future of the Western Conference

This is the third of a four part series started last month that discusses the future of franchises in hockey. To re-iterate the guidelines in case you haven’t read the previous posts, this focuses specifically on players that the current teams have and looking at the contracts those players have signed. Each team is evaluated on their top 8 forwards, 4 defenseman, and 1 goalie as part of their ranking with the belief that the other players on the team should not as a whole make much of an impact on the salary cap. Teams are evaluated based on numerous criteria including length's of contract, affordability of contract, whether players are playing out of position (ex. 2nd liners playing on the first line), amount of money wasted on bought out contracts, length of time players are controlled by RFA status, etc.. Essentially the more players that a team has locked up who are affordable or exceptional, the better their ranking is. This is not necessarily a reflection of the performance of a team but on the potential for these teams to be healthy long term and have future success.

Part 3: The Western Conference (The Top Half)

1. Edmonton: The Oilers take first place in the Western Conference and it wasn’t really that close. The group of prospects, high draft picks and especially young forwards that the Oilers have developed and have control over for the next 3-5 five years is incredible. I’m not necessarily sold on all or most of these players, but the kind of potential that Gagner, Cogliano, Schremp, Nillson, Penner, Brule, O’Marra, and Pouliot have leads me to believe that at least a couple of them will develop into top line 70-90 point players. The Oilers do have a few players who have questionable contracts like Souray, Penner, and Pisani, but if they perform like they can when these contracts were signed then the deals are acceptable. The Oilers have a significant amount of their team locked up for at least 3 years and few contracts are too long, or too expensive. The big issue is goaltending where it currently doesn’t appear that the Oilers have a credible No. 1 goalie either this year or for the future. We’ll see if the development of Garon, Drouin-Deslauriers, or Dubnyk can become the long term solution that the Oilers need.

2. Chicago: When you have high draft picks and make worthwhile picks within them, you can be set for what looks like years to come, and that looks like Chicago. Add in a few well placed signings to take pressure off and mentor the young kids and you’re team looks like Chicago. Some people don’t like the signings of Brian Campbell or Cristobal Huet, but I personally think they’re great for a young up-and-coming team for like the Hawks. Chicago could have a problem if some of their young RFA’s want high-value, long term contracts but at least for the next couple of years, Chicago looks quite good. Development will be the key, and it appears Chicago is pretty good at it, especially if you look at Cam Barker who just last year looked out of place at the NHL level and now looks like a top 3 d-man for the next 15 years. Chicago’s GM, Dale Tallon will have some decisions to make this off-season with Havlat and Khabibulin as UFA’s and Barker, Versteeg, and Dave Bolland as RFA’s plus no one signed beyond 3 seasons besides Brian Campbell’s which means top forwards like Kane, Toews, and Sharp need to be signed.

3. San Jose: The major factor for San Jose being such a high ranking is flat out talent. San Jose doesn’t necessarily have a great looking future but the players they do have are playing to their potential or even exceeding it. One essential category I evaluate on is are the players you have playing in positions that their talent matches, and San Jose has lots of talented forwards and defence to fills their needs. Neither Thornton, Cheechoo, or Marleau are signed beyond two years, so San Jose has some decisions to make. San Jose does have a nice group of young forwards coming up including Setoguchi, Pavelski, Clowe, and Torrey Mitchell, with some good young prospects as well. The defence is set up even better with 4 of 6 d-men signed for 2 or more seasons. In goal, Nabokov is only signed for one more season but currently his contract is only 5.375 million, so he’ll probably be looking for a raise if San Jose is able to re-sign him. Overall, San Jose’s future is looking good, but that could change a year or two down the road if they don’t bring in new players or re-sign their current stars like Nabokov, Thornton and Marleau.

4. Los Angeles: The Kings have a group of forwards that are all signed for a good while. 7 forwards who are currently among the Kings top 10 forwards are signed for 2 or more seasons and their best forward, Anze Kopitar, is signed for the next 7 seasons. The Kings seem to be back in their youth movement after a failed attempt at signing a bunch of free agents a year ago. Consequently, young forwards like Moller, O’Sullivan, Simmonds, and Kopitar are really being given a significant amount of ice time, and are producing in response to it. Jack Johnson’s injury will really stunt his growth because this would have been a very significant year for the young d-man in both ice time and responsibility. Yet, the Kings defence looks pretty good for the next 5 to 10 years with current NHL’ers and Calder candidate Drew Doughty, the aforementioned Jack Johnson, Matt Greene, and Peter Harrold, and young 1st rounders and members of Canada's world junior team, Thomas Hickey and Colton Teubert. If they can keep this group together and even a few of them are able to reach their potential, Los Angeles will be one of the best defensive teams for years to come, with only one condition: Goaltending. Los Angeles has lived for the last few years without a goalie and that may require them to rush goaltending prospect Jonathan Bernier. In the short term Erik Ersberg seems to be surviving, but I'm not sure he is a long term solution for Los Angeles’ goaltending issues.

5. Columbus: Scott Howson was busy this past off-season and because of his moves, the Blue Jackets have a decent looking future. Columbus has a high percentage of their forwards and defenseman locked up long term, the only question is whether they have enough top end talent. Columbus looks best in goal where the tandem of Steve Mason and Pascal Leclaire are both promising young netminders who are both locked up for 2 more years each. At forward, Columbus has a few good young forwards in Brassard and Vorachek, and have picked up a few other top 6 forwards to make them pretty respectable. The health of this club has to be a concerned with players like Torres and Modin both being counted on to produce, while trying to fight off their injury woes. On defense, Columbus has a decent group of d-men but really doesn’t have top end talent. Columbus could really use a power play quarterback and puck moving defenseman to help them move to the next level.

6. Detroit: When you’re the reigning Stanley Cup champions and you get better in the off-season, is it fair to have lists like this? Well I’m not sure, but Detroit’s forwards may need some help next season unless UFA’S Franzen, Hossa, Samuelsson and Zetterberg all give the Red Wings a hometown discount. Detroit’s defence looks solid: their top 4 is one of, if not the best in the league, and even though Lidstrom isn’t signed past next season, I couldn’t imagine him signing with another team. Goaltending will be the weak point of this team until they can develop a goalie of their own or steal one from somebody else. With a strong forecasted group of UFA goalies available, maybe this will be the year that Detroit can upgrade over Chris Osgood. Now Detroit’s forwards could be hurting but then again they still have Datsyuk, Cleary, Filppula, and Holmstrom signed, so consequently compared to some teams, they don’t look that bad. Either way, if Detroit is going to continue to be the dynasty that they have been, they will need to re-sign some of their aforementioned UFA’s or find some other forwards to replace them.

7. Calgary: Oh Calgary, Darryl Sutter sometimes looks like a genius and other times like a fool. The Flames have a few top players signed to great players and a few mediocre players signed to bizarre contracts. The Flames need to either sign or replace Cammalleri, Bertuzzi, and Moss because all have contracts expiring after this season. Without them Calgary has a decent first line, and otherwise a bunch of 3rd and 4th liners. Calgary has a lot of money invested on defence, and contracts to Phaneuf, Giordano, and Regehr all look really good, but I don’t understand the money given to defensive d-men like Sarich and Vandermeer who make almost 6 million between them. In goal, if you’re a Kiprusoff fan be happy that he’s locked up for 5 more years; but if you’re a skeptic like me, you see the downturn in his play and wonder what value he’ll be with over 29 million still owed to him. Calgary has some solid top end talent but may have trouble filling out there line-up with 31 million locked up with just six players for the next three years.

8. Nashville: The Predators have a strong group of players that are locked up both for term and for reasonable contracts as a whole. The biggest question for the Predators is their goaltending. Sometimes it looks like either Dan Ellis or Pekka Rinne could be number one goalies for years to come and other times it looks like they are simply temporary stop gaps. An additional concern for the Predators is their lack of depth at forward and a good number of players playing out of position. Jason Arnott, Martin Erat, and J. P. Dumont are all good players, but look a lot better as second liners than as first liners. Match that line against other top lines in the league, and the production simply doesn’t match up for Nashville. The Predators could really use Alexander Radulov to come back to the NHL. Nashville’s defense has some of the best young d-men in the NHL but would do well to lock some more of these men up for the long term.

Monday, January 12, 2009

Mid-Season NHL Awards

The title says it all, so without further ado...

Biggest Surprise: Boston Bruins

From Milan Lucic, to Tim Thomas, to Marc Savard, the 1st place Bruins have cornered the market on surprises. Will they be able to keep it up for the rest of the season?

Runner-Up: Unanimous Selection

Biggest Disappointment: Tampa Bay Lightning

The only surprise here is that more people didn't see this coming. A team with suspect goaltending and weak defense lets is best defenseman leave over the summer, and then spends the money it saved on a bunch of forwards. Dumb.

Runner-Up: Ottawa Senators

Best Free-Agent Signing (so far): Dan Boyle, SJ

The leagues highest scoring defenseman is on pace for his best season ever. His 3 GWG are tops among defenseman, and his arrival is a big reason why the Sharks power-play is operating at above 20%.

Runner-Up: Marian Hossa, DET

Worst Free-Agent Signing (so far): Sean Avery, DAL

Was there ever any doubt? Avery's antics were tolerated in New York because he was scoring and the team was winning. No such luck in Dallas.

Runner-Up: Cristobal Huet, CHI

Comeback Player of the 1/2 Year: Nikolai Khabibulin, CHI

The Bulin wall was widely regarded as trade bait following the off-season acquisition of Cristobal Huet. Even yours truly felt Khabi's days were numbered. However, the Russian netminder has bounced back with a strong 2.31 GAA and a .926 save percentage with the offensive minded Blackhawks. Unfortunately, he still isn't worth 6.75 mil a season.

Runner-Up: Rob Blake, SJ

Rookie of the 1/2 Year: Steve Mason, CLB

Mason leads the league in GAA, save percentage, and shut-outs. It's hard to argue with those statistics.

Runner-Up: Unanimous Selection

Strangest Injury: Joe Sakic, COL

Sakic's snow-blower escapades brought back memories or Riders FB Chris Szarka slicing his finger tips off with a table saw. It's nice to see Sakic is still down-to-earth enough to shovel his own driveway, but from now on the Avalanche will likely send over a lackey.

Runner-Up: Matt Stajan, TOR

Slow Starter Heating Up: Erik Cole, EDM

After scoring only 3 goals in his first 30 games, Cole has racked up 5 in his last 11. That kind of production is what the Oilers had in mind when the brought him over from Carolina.

Runner-Up: Marty Turco, DAL

Hot Starter Cooling Off: Miroslav Satan, PIT

11 goals in his first 30 games followed by 1 in his next 13. I know Satan goes as Crosby and Malkin do, but this is ridiculous.

Runner-Up: Nikolai Zherdev, NYR

Player Quietly Having a Good Season: David Krejci, BOS

Does is surprise you to know Krejci is averaging a point-per-game this season? Me too. His 46 points put him 11th overall in league scoring. He's just one of many Bruins having an outstanding year.

Runner-Up: Thomas Vanek, BUF

Speed Round:

1/2 Season MVP: Tim Thomas, BOS

Fight of the 1/2 Year: Eric Godard vs. Riley Cote

Biggest Cheapshot: Tom Kostopolous on Mike Van Ryn

Hardest Hit: Doug Weight on Brandon Sutter

Best Save: Jason Labarbera on Mike Ribero (sorry about the poor quality)

Sweetest Goal: Blake Wheeler

Sweetest Goal (Shoot-Out Edition): Pavel Datsyuk

Fine Print:
All statistics accurate as of the writing of this post.

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