A Tale of Three Knights

I couldn't help but wonder what was wrong with Sam Gagner (the former London Knight) when I watched Chicago destroy Edmonton last night. Gagner was considered to be a rising star after scoring 49 points in his rookie season and there were definitely some huge expectations for him this year but he just hasn't looked the same this season. He even had a bit of a chip on his shoulder after getting snubbed by NHL 09 for a poor ranking compared to his linemate Andrew Cogliano. Gagner's goig through the dreaded sophomore slump but realistically his biggest problem is that Gagner isn't yet able to contribute in enough aspects of the game to make him worth waiting for him to break through the struggles. He's not big enough to contribute physically, nor can he really help out on the cycle and he's not that fast skater. He is a very good passer, and does seem to really have good hockey sense but that doesn't seem to mean he can produce at the moment.

Sam is usually good because he knows he belongs, and because when he has confidence he can pass as good as anyone. But compare him to his former teammate in junior, Patrick Kane and you can see a big difference. When Chicago had injuries to deal with last year, Kane was able to take Chicago on his back and was able to score in important situations. This year, Kane has been surrounded by good players, but he himself is showing that he is the best on the team, competing with the league leaders in goals and points. Kane has the ability to create offense for himself and the ability to score goals, rather than set others up for goals. Gagner doesn't seem to be able to create offense for himself, and even worse, he's currently not able to set up others either.

So what is the solution, well I believe that comes with a third London Knight....Rob Schremp. Schremp has torn up the AHL the last few seasons and produced as well as any other Oiler when given a chance on a 4 game call up. Schremp has the offensive ability to fill in for Gagner and produce for the Oilers, giving Sam time to regain his confidence in.....the AHL. Gagner needs to play against players who aren't as good as him, to remind himself just how good he actually is. He needs to remind himself, that he can make those key passes and that he can also score some goals as well. He also really needs to work on his defensive game, which isn't talked about, but Gagner was a -21 last year, and his linemates Cogliano and Nillson were +1 and +8 respectively.
Sam needs a chance to escape from the spotlight and remember that he is a good hockey player. Currently, the Oilers have players who can produce and fill in for Gagner, so it's in the best interest of the Oilers and Gagner to give him some time to relax in the NHL.

There's nothing to stop the Oilers from doing this. Gagner doesn't have to clear waivers, and neither does Schremp, so moving them up and down wouldn' t be an issue. Gagner also has a bigger cap hit at 1.6 million where as Schremp is only 780 thousand, so the Oilers could actually save some money against the cap by doing this, and maybe use that extra money to bring in a player for a playoff push later in the year. So there is really nothing stopping the Oilers, besides maybe Craig MacTavish having to actually play Robbie Schremp.

That's all for now......the Future Evaluation of the Western Conference will be coming soon.

Aidan.

Part 2: The Future of the Eastern Conference

Eastern Conference (Bottom Half)

9. Boston: The Bruins are again a team that has a decent looking team for the next season or two but no one locked up long term. The young forwards for the Bruins seem to really be performing and it wouldn’t be surprising to see one or more of them locked up long term but Peter Chiarrelli just hasn’t done that yet. Boston has a few forwards that are overpaid like Ryder and Wheeler but those forwards are still producing. They also have a few players who are playing above their current value like Marc Savard and David Krejci. On defence, the top two pairing of Chara and Wideman are locked up for two and three years respectively and considering their performance are both worthwhile players. Boston doesn’t have anyone else on defence locked up long term but Matt Hunwick, a good locking rookie is an RFA and may end up being a significant player for Boston over the long term. One of the biggest issues with Boston is their goaltending. They have two mid-range goalies, who could be no. 1’s some of the time while showing flashes of brilliance, and play more like back-up’s at other times, but neither is signed beyond this year. Boston does have Tuukka Rask, a young prospect who may end of stepping in as the back up for next year, but Boston does need to sign another goalie and may have to spend big money to keep either of theirs.

T-10. Ottawa: The Sens have one major problem, players not playing up to their potential. Ottawa has almost an entire line-up signed for next season, but can’t seem to make any real trades without getting rid of one of their big three forwards, because they have signed too many players coming off a career season. Mike Fisher is a good center, but he’s not a great No. 2, and he’s not worth 4.2 million for the next four seasons. On defence, they have neither a top power play quarterback nor a real top pair defenseman. This is simply because they cannot truly afford to do so with the amount of money committed to their forwards. Goaltending is also a scary situation for Ottawa, because they neither have a number one signed, nor can they keep the goalies they have and hope one become a number one. Ottawa really needs to make a dramatic change, to fix their team both for now and for the future, but to be honest, I’m not even sure I would know where to start.

T-10. New Jersey: Martin Brodeur will have to retire sometime right? In the mean time New Jersey’s goaltending is set, it’s the rest of their team that could use some work. New Jersey has 6 of their top 9 forwards signed for at least two more years, the problem is many of those players aren’t producing to the value of their contracts. Players like Elias at 6 million/season, Zubrus at 3.4 million, and Pandolfo at 2.5 million just aren’t worth what Lamoriello is paying them. Jersey’s defence could also use an upgrade where a legitimate number one defenseman is their biggest need. The Devils do have Colin White and Bryce Salvador locked up for 3 more seasons each but neither is top 2 and maybe not even top 4 material. An upgrade on defence, and more value from their forwards would really help New Jersey in the long run, oh and maybe developing someone to replace Brodeur if he does plan on retiring in the next five years, or gets injured again.

12. Atlanta: How does Don Waddell still have a job as GM of Atlanta, he’s done nothing since he came. He emptied the cupboards trying to make the playoffs two years ago, and now he can’t sign either of his superstars, one who’s already gone (Hossa) and the other will be gone at the end of next season or earlier (Kovalchuk). Waddell has made some moves I’ve liked adding players like Jason Williams, Ron Hainsey, and Mathieu Schneider, but those are simply not long term solutions to poor overall management. Atlanta’s defence looks decent for the years to come with Hainsey, Bogosian, and Enstrom all controlled for at least the next four years. It’s goaltending and the offence that is the problem. Atlanta has some decent young forwards in Christensen, Armstrong, and Little, but not a forward is signed beyond two years, and only one is signed beyond next season. It’s also time to give up on Kari Lehtonen and try to find a legitimate number one goalie.

13. New York Islanders Already the 15 year contract to Rick Dipietro looks like a bad move, based on his injuries. This team does have a few young players signed but top end talent really doesn't exist. When your top line includes Bill Guerin or Doug Weight, that scares me. This team would have been a lot better if they had been together 5 or 6 years ago when there players were in there prime. They simply have too many players playing in roles greater than their talent deserves. The fact that Alexei Yashin’s salary will count to a total of 16.5 million over the next 6 seasons doesn’t help either. Sounds like a problem only a backup goalie turned GM could create.

14. Montreal: This rating may change for Montreal if they manage to sign some of their UFA's but right now Montreal has only two of their top nine forwards signed to a contract for next season and only two of their top 4 d-men. Carey Price may be the best young goalie in the league but he is also only signed for next season and them will presumably want a significant pay raise. The one benefit for Bob Gainey may be that he has a significant number of prospects who may be able to step in if necessary and we have already seen the beginnings of that with Matt D'Agostini. Could Montreal be going into rebuilding mode, I don't think so, but Bob Gainey does need to get a lot of names on contracts in order to ice a respectable team for next season and beyond.

15. Toronto: Brian Burke will be the savior of the franchise...the question is only will it take one or two years or five. Who Toronto is able to draft this upcoming year may play a significant part in it as well as whether Burke will be able to get good value for players like Antropov, Kaberle, Kubina, and Ponikarovsky in the form of prospects or draft picks, or whether he'll be able to trade them at all. Toronto does have some good players locked up like Niklas Hagman but also has some questionable contracts like Jason Blake and Jeff Finger. We will simply have to wait and see what Brian Burke is able to do, and how fast he will be able to obtain and sign players that will help Toronto move back to respectability.

Part 1: The Future of the Eastern Conference

This week and next week I'll be looking at the Eastern and Western Conferences and evaluating the future of each team. This focuses specifically on players that the current teams have and looking at the contracts those players have signed. Each team has 8 forwards, 4 defenseman, and 1 goalie as part of their ranking with the belief that the other players on the team should not as a whole make much of an impact on the salary cap. Teams are evaluated based on numerous criteria including length's of contract, affordability of contract, whether players are playing out of position (ex. 2nd liners playing on the first line), amount of money wasted on bought out players, length of time players are controlled by RFA status. Essentially the more players that a team has locked up who are afforable or exceptional, the better there ranking. This is not necessarily a reflection of the performance of a team but on the potential for these teams to be healthy long term and have future success.


Part 1: Eastern Conference (The Top Half)

1. Pittsburgh: The fact that Crosby and Malkin are locked up for 4 and 5 more years and both at affordable contracts for what they can produce is a definite factor. Their defence is strong, and if Gonchar and Whitney weren't injured might be one of the best in the league both now and for the next few years. They also aren't overpaying for anyone on the defensive end and have lots of youth as well. They don't have a lot of forwards signed, but have some flexibility and enough young potential. Marc-Andre Fleury is also an affordable goalie at only 5 million a season and locked up for the next 6 years, and I'd take him over a good number of goalies paid more than him. The question with Pittsburgh will be, can they afford Jordan Staal, and can they sign suitable wingers to play with Crosby and Malkin.

2. Philadelphia: Philly has a lot of players locked up long term and though I do not agree with or like all of their signings, the quality of talent is extremely high. I don't agree with signing Mike Richards for 12 years and the injury risk is high, but currently he's worth more than the 5.75 million he's being paid so his negatives balance his positives. Players like Gagne and Jeff Carter are both playing well above the value of their contracts so they are both definite positives. It's debatable whether Briere, Timonen, Lupul, or Hartnell are worth what they getting paid, but Philly will have them all for at least 3 years, and so Philly's core is quite strong. Philly's big question is in goal where they currently don't have a goalie signed for next season.

3. Buffalo: The best thing about Buffalo are their forwards. They have top end forwards signed long term and they are all fairly young. They have 5 forwards signed longterm, 3 of which are first liners, 1 is a second liner, and 1 is a third liner. They also have 3 young talented RFA forwards who could complete their forwards for at least the next three years. Buffalo's defence is acceptable, but the key is they aren't overpaying for anyone. Craig Rivet is making the most and he's only at 3.5 million for the next two years. The real positive is that Ryan Miller is signed long term and that Buffalo will be able to rely on him to keep them in the playoff run for at least the next five years. Buffalo's biggest negative is simply the age of their defenseman, they have developed a lot of young forwards but also need to develop young defenseman to balance their team and their cap situation.

4. Washington: Having the only current 60 goal player in the league signed to a 13 year deal never hurts, and that's the biggest factor that puts Washington in 4th. Otherwise Washington's defensive core is fairly strong with Green, Poti, and presumably Karl Alzner fairly soon. That would be a pretty strong top 3 and would only cost 10 million against the cap. Washington doesn't have a forward besides Ovechkin locked up beyond 2 seasons and both Semin and Backstrom are only locked up for next year. Yet, both Semin and Backstrom are RFA' so as long as the Caps can sign them to affordable deals, the offense should be fairly strong for years to come as well. In goal, Jose Theodore is signed through next year but it still remains to be seen as to whether he is a stopgap or is the Caps long term solution.

5. Tampa Bay: Though they are struggling so far this year, they have a number of affordable contracts and two key players signed noticeably under market value (St. Louis, Lecavalier). Malone's contract is probably too long and overpriced, but as a whole they have a nice mix of young up-and-comers and affordable veterans. The perceived value of this team may decrease if players like Vrbata and Stamkos don't start to score as they were expected to. The real question will be can their defense core improve because Paul Ranger and Andrei Meszaros are pretty long on T-Bay's blueline.

6. Florida: One of the best things about the Panthers is that they have a large group of their young players locked up to long term deals. Horton, Weiss, and Olesz are all locked up for at least the next 4 seasons, and young forward prospects like Frolik and David Booth are both controlled for the next few seasons through their RFA status. On defence, Florida has 3 solid d-men locked up for at least two more seasons, but Jay Bouwmeester, the best of the bunch is an UFA after this season, so that could be a significant negative for them. The other significant concern is the lack of top end talent on Florida; they have a significant number of players locked up but they aren't necessarily top line material or top pair d-men besides Horton, and McCabe, and those both may be debatable. Yet, for the lack of top end players, they don't have many overwhelming or overpriced contracts, so it basically balances out.

7. New York Rangers: The Rangers have a good number of players signed long term and for those who aren't many will still be RFA's when there contract runs out. Next year is still a big question as Zherdev, Prucha, Korpikoski, Dubinsky, Dawes, Callahan, and Fritsche are all RFA's after this season. Consequently, the Rangers only have 5 forwards signed beyond this season, so the biggest question will be can New York afford to keep all those RFA's. I'm going to suggest they won't be able to because the Rangers already have 41 million counting against the cap without any of the RFA's signed. The defense has a top four that is fairly strong and all signed beyond through next season, and Girardi and Staal are both RFA's after next season so the Rangers still hold their rights for a while. In goal, the Rangers are amongst the best in the league with Henrik Lundqvist, and those he's making almost 7 million per season, he's locked up for the next 5 years and has been worth his salary so far. So, the biggest concern for the Rangers is whether they can afford to keep the players they have signed, and signing all of their RFA's,

8. Carolina: The Canes have to be one of few teams in professional sports to win a championship and then simply crumble. The most important thing for the Canes is that they have their franchise player signed long term, with Eric Staal being committed for 7 more years. Presuming that Staal is going to produce somewhere between the 80 to 100 points he has shown and not the 40 or 50 he is on pace for this, he’ll be a valuable player for years to come. Otherwise, Carolina looks not bad on paper with players like Williams, Pitkanen, and Brind’Amour signed for two more years. There are two factors that make Carolina a big question mark; first they seem to have a lot of injuries and often to their key players, and secondly, they have a good looking squad for next year but only Stall is signed for more than two more years. Finally, we have to wonder what is simply wrong with Carolina, they look like they should be good, but maybe they will always be a team that looks better on paper, and doesn’t simply have enough consistency to be a good team and make the playoffs every year.

It's about Time!

You had to wonder just how long it was going to take the NHL to grow sick and tired of Sean Avery's mouth. For a long time it looked like the NHL was going to secede to the 'any publicity is good publicity' mentality, and let the Dallas Stars motor-mouth hold forth on whatever he wanted whenever he wanted. Thankfully the League did what the Dallas Stars should have done a long time ago, and reigned Avery in.

I'm all for colorful personalities and trash talk, especially if it's witty, but seriously, making remarks about another man's girlfriend to the media is bush-league. This isn't a soap opera, it's a professional hockey league. If Avery wants to tell the media Phaneuf is over-rated, over-payed, etc. then he can knock himself out. But there are certain things that should be off-limits, family being one (ya I know, it was Phaneuf's girlfriend, not his wife, but close enough).

Stefan Legein

It's nice to hear that Stefan Legein has decided to resume his playing career. For those of you who don't know much about Stefan, he is a 19 year old kid and 2nd round draft pick of Columbus in 2007, who "lost his desire to play hockey." He was, I'm sure, one of many kids who struggled with the pressure to constantly perform and becoming grown up while barely finishing high school.

His decision to "retire" at 19 was largely a reflection on the NHL system as a whole rather than Stefan Legein himself. An NHL player is drafted and can start his career at 18, the youngest of any of the Big 4 leagues. Though baseball players can be drafted in high school, the majority of them are drafted while in college, and after they are drafted the norm is for a top prospect to at least spend a year or two in the minor leagues moving through rookie ball, A ball, AA and finally AAA before they make it to the majors. This is not a required progression, but a player rarely makes it to the majors and makes a significant contribution until at least 2 years after they have been drafted. In the NBA, players are required to spend at least 1 year in college, and there is a significant push to require players to spend 2 years in college. The NBA has changed this rule in recent years after a majority of players who were drafted out of high school simply couldn't make it into a rotation or gain significant playing time for their first few years. Without a legitimate development league, the NBA decided that their young phenom's would be better served with at least a year's worth of college to gain playing time and maturity. Finally, the NFL requires their players to spend at least 2 years in college before being draft eligible, and there are a significant number of players who choose to spend 3 or 4 years before being drafted.

In comparison young prospects in the NHL haven't necessarily even graduated from high school before they have the weight of the world put on their shoulders and have expectations that they'll become the saviour of whatever franchise they are drafted by. I'm not sure I am legitimately suggesting that the NHL should or can change the age at which players can be drafted because there is a strong system for developing young players through the major junior ranks, the American college system and the AHL. What I am suggesting, however, is that it's not surprising that one player would find that pressure to be too much at the age of 19 and would lose their interest or passion to play. If you do not have a passion to play hockey, there is no way that you can legitimately play in the NHL and especially for a player like Legein, there is no way that he can properly develop if he is not motivated to do so.

Stefan Legein looks like a really bright kid who gets that he needs to be motivated and to have fun to become a good NHL player. I really hope that he has found that motivation and that he can enjoy hockey even when he is expected to grow up far sooner than most people his age. There are significant expectations on him and they seem to be well founded, he seems to have a signifcant skill set, and also seems to relish the role of agitator, and so it is possible that he could become a Sean Avery type player (without the comments about ex-girlfriends and all his other stupidty), a player who can get under the other teams skin, but can also score 20 goals or 50 points every year as well. Let's hope this time off has been good for the kid and that hockey is fun again for him, not just full of pressure and expecations.

More news and details of Stefan Legein's decision can be found below in TSN's story.

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=258235&lid=sublink09&lpos=headlines_nhl